Treasury Yields Input
Curve Shape
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2Y–10Y Spread
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3M–10Y Spread
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Slope (3M→30Y)
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bps per year of maturity
Short Rate (3M)
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Long Rate (30Y)
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U.S. Treasury Yield Curve
Maturity is drawn on a logarithmic time axis, so the short end gets the room it deserves. Line color reflects the curve's shape.
Reference Shapes Comparison
Your curve against two illustrative textbook shapes: a healthy upward-sloping curve and a pre-recession inversion (late-2006 style, approximate).
Yield Spread Analysis
2Y–10Y Spread
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3M–10Y Spread
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5Y–30Y Spread
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Butterfly (2s5s10s)
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Where the curve slopes — segment by segment
Each bar is the yield change between neighboring maturities, in basis points. Red bars below the dashed zero line are inverted segments — this shows exactly where the inversion lives.
Custom Spread Calculator
Forward Rate Calculator
The forward rate is the future interest rate the current curve implies: investing to the end period must earn the same as investing to the start period and rolling into the forward. Formula: (1+y₂)t₂ = (1+y₁)t₁ × (1+f)t₂−t₁.
Spot Rates vs Implied Forwards
Green bars are today's spot rates; amber bars are the forward rates the curve implies for future periods. Forwards below spots mean the market is pricing in falling rates.
Economic Signals from the Yield Curve
Recession Probability (next 12 months)
Estrella–Mishkin probit model on the 3M–10Y spread — the classic academic model behind the New York Fed's recession indicator. An approximation for education, not a forecast.
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Fed Policy Stance
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read from the 3-month rate
Growth Outlook
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read from the 2Y–10Y slope
5Y→5Y Forward Rate
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long-run rate expectations proxy
Historical Curve Patterns
Current Pattern Match: --
Similar Historical Periods: --
Historically Typical Outcome: --
Bond Portfolio Impact Analysis
Estimates how a parallel yield shift changes portfolio value using the standard duration + convexity approximation: ΔV ≈ −D·Δy·V + ½·C·(Δy)²·V.