FIRE Parameters
FIRE Number (4% Rule)
$1,000,000
Portfolio needed for retirement
Years to FIRE
15
Gap to FIRE
$750,000
Monthly Withdrawal
$3,333
Success Probability
95%
FIRE Progress Tracker
Starting
Building
Coast
FIRE!
25% to Financial Independence
Path to FIRE
Withdrawal Strategy
Safe Annual Withdrawal
$40,000
Using Traditional 4% Rule
30
Years of Income
85%
Purchasing Power
5%
Failure Risk
$500K
Expected Legacy
Portfolio Sustainability Over Time
Strategy Comparison
Traditional 4% Rule
$40,000/year
Dynamic Spending (3-5%)
$30,000-50,000/year
Guardrails Method
$35,000-45,000/year
Portfolio Allocation
Portfolio Risk-Return Profile
7.5%
Expected Annual Return
Volatility: 12%
Asset Allocation
Efficient Frontier
Risk Level: Moderate
Monte Carlo Simulation
Success Rate
92%
Probability of portfolio survival
$1.2M
Median Final Value
$0
5th Percentile
$4.5M
95th Percentile
Never
Avg Depletion Year
Simulation Results Distribution
Risk Analysis
🟢 95%+ Success Rate
Very Safe
🟡 85-95% Success Rate
Moderate Risk
🔴 Below 85% Success
High Risk
Coast FIRE Calculator
Coast FIRE Number
$200,000
Save this amount then coast to retirement
Years to Coast FIRE
2.5
Coast FIRE Age
30
Amount Needed Now
$50,000
Can Stop Saving In
2 years
Coast FIRE Timeline
Today (Age 28)
Current Portfolio: $150,000
Coast FIRE (Age 30)
Stop Saving: $200,000
Retirement (Age 65)
Final Portfolio: $1,250,000